Devnet Mode

Whitepaper

Introduction

Predictium is a DEX-like decentralized prediction market protocol built on Solana blockchain that enables organizations and individuals to create cryptocurrency-based prediction pools while allowing traders to engage in secure prediction trading across diverse topics. Through its smart contract interface accessible via web and mobile apps, Predictium aims to establish a self-governing ecosystem where all participants - including poolmakers, traders, and arbitrators - are incentivized for their contributions. The platform ensures sustainable development through decentralized governance structures, economic incentives, and community oversight mechanisms.

Core Features

Predictium's core feature is the creation of prediction pools, with participant funds (SPL tokens) distributed fairly and transparently.

Target Users

Predictium users mainly fall into two categories: Poolmakers and Traders. Poolmakers create prediction pools, add initial liquidity, and announce final results. Traders participate in prediction pools they are interested in, placing bets on preferred outcomes and earning returns for successful predictions.

Traditional betting service providers can leverage Predictium to conduct on-chain business, expanding into the cryptocurrency market. KOLs in various fields can use Predictium to provide services to their followers and earn income. Poolmakers can create prediction pools on any topic, designating any token as the trading token, including wrapped SOL, stablecoins, meme coins, and any other SPL token. Traders can use Predictium to hedge risks, speculate for profit, or purely for entertainment.

Competitive Advantages

The prediction market landscape encompasses both traditional centralized and blockchain-based platforms:

Traditional platforms:

  • Kalshi - CFTC regulated centralized prediction market, supports USDC deposits

Blockchain-based platforms:

  • Polymarket - Currently active on Polygon
  • Augur - Early Ethereum prediction market pioneer with reduced activity
  • Gnosis - Evolved beyond prediction markets into a broader blockchain ecosystem
  • DexSport - Sports prediction market on EVM-compatible chains

These platforms' experiences highlight key market challenges:

  • High transaction costs on Ethereum
  • Limited prediction topics
  • Complex user experience
  • Restricted token support
  • Centralized results verification

Predictium, built on Solana, addresses these limitations through:

  1. Enhanced Performance:

    • High throughput and low fees
    • Intuitive user interface

  2. Flexible Predictions:

    • Supports diverse prediction topics
    • Multiple trading options

  3. Token Flexibility:

    • Accepts any SPL token

  4. Robust Governance:

    • DAO-driven decision making
    • Efficient dispute resolution
    • Economic incentive alignment
    • Innovative dual-protection results verification

  5. Regulatory Advantage:

    • As a DEX-like decentralized infrastructure protocol similar to DEX (rather than operating prediction markets directly), Predictium faces significantly less regulatory pressure compared to prediction market operators like Polymarket. The protocol simply provides neutral infrastructure for others to build prediction markets, with no control over market creation or outcomes.
    • Provides Poolmakers geofencing tools to select which countries/regions to serve or restrict while maintaining protocol neutrality

Growth Strategy

After our mainnet launch, Predictium will actively onboard established, traditional betting operators (e.g. sports bookmakers) and influential content creators across adjacent verticals (e.g. esports, entertainment, celebrity KOLs). We will provide dedicated integration and co-marketing support to ensure these partners can seamlessly launch on-chain prediction markets under their own brands. Early adopter partners will receive governance token airdrop according to their contribution.

Long-tail Market Coverage

Enables niche prediction markets through cost-effective creation for specialized topics like regional sports leagues, local elections, and influencer challenges

How it works

Basic Process

  • Any address can register as a Poolmaker on-chain and verify their X account, Telegram channel/group, Discord server, and owned websites/domains off-chain.
  • Poolmakers can create prediction pools by specifying the topic, description, options, trading token, trading deadline, results announcement deadline, and whether the results are disputable.
  • The final results of a prediction pool is announced by the Poolmaker.
  • Since all funds are held and managed by smart contracts, traders can settle their profits or receive refunds at any time for eligible prediction pools.

Prediction Pool State

The following diagram helps understand the states of the Prediction Pool.

State Transition Diagram

Disputability

Design Note: Arbitration is expected to occur rarely because when a poolmaker creates a disputable prediction pool, they are signaling their commitment to announcing fair results and accepting community oversight. Otherwise, they could simply create non-disputable pools. Competition between poolmakers will drive them to provide high-quality services, including timely and fair results announcements and competitive fees.

  • For non-disputable prediction pools, traders can immediately settle their profits and poolmakers can collect their service fees after results announcement.
  • For disputable prediction pools, there is an arbitration request window after results announcement where traders who disagree with the results can request arbitration.

Arbitration Process

  • If the total funds requesting arbitration during the window period does not exceed the threshold, arbitration is not triggered and deposits are refunded.
  • If the total funds requesting arbitration exceeds the threshold, the pool enters arbitration.
  • The pool is arbitrated by 9 matched arbitrators. Settlement proceeds if 6 or more arbitrators validate the poolmaker's announced results, otherwise the pool is invalidated.
  • For invalid pools:
    • The pool results are considered invalid
    • Traders receive refunds minus arbitration fees
    • Poolmakers cannot collect fees
    • No protocol fees
    • Arbitration deposits are returned to traders
    • Arbitrators still receive their fees for providing arbitration service
  • For valid pools:
    • The poolmaker's announced results are confirmed
    • Traders can settle profits
    • Poolmakers can collect fees
    • Arbitration deposits are forfeited to the protocol treasury
  • Arbitrators receive a portion of the pool's tokens as fees after making decisions, regardless of outcome. Arbitration fees are deducted before prize distribution.
  • If traders believe arbitration was unfair, they can contact the Predictium Council through Predictium's official channels. If unfairness is confirmed, the Council can confiscate the arbitrator's staked $PRED and fees as punishment.

Anti-abuse Mechanism for Arbitration

To prevent abuse of the arbitration system while maintaining traders' rights to dispute unfair results, Predictium implements a deposit-based mechanism:

  • Traders must pay a small deposit in SOL when requesting arbitration
  • The deposit is held by the protocol treasury during the arbitration process
  • If the total funds requesting arbitration during the window period does not exceed the threshold, arbitration is not triggered and deposits are refunded during settlement.
  • If the arbitration validates the pool:
    • The deposit is forfeited to the protocol treasury
    • Traders can only settle according to the original results
  • If the arbitration invalidates the pool:
    • The deposit is fully refunded to traders during settlement
    • Traders receive refunds of their trading amounts minus arbitration fees

This mechanism ensures that:

  • The deposit mechanism effectively prevents malicious or unnecessary arbitration requests
  • The deposit amount is small enough not to discourage legitimate arbitration requests
  • Successful arbitration requests incur no extra cost to traders

Arbitrators

  • $PRED holders can stake $PRED to become arbitrators.
  • Arbitrators can only withdraw staked $PRED and collect accumulated arbitration fees after a waiting period from their last accepted arbitration request.
  • The waiting period prevents unfair arbitration - if unfair decisions are discovered during this period, the arbitrator's staked $PRED and fees are confiscated to the protocol treasury as punishment.

Anti-Manipulation Mechanism

  • When arbitrators stake $PRED, they are assigned a sequential arbitrator number on-chain.
  • When arbitration is triggered for a pool, the trigger timestamp is recorded.
  • The protocol calculates an arbitration matching parameter m based on the number of arbitrators and arbitrator_distribution_factor (set by authority), where m = number of arbitrators / arbitrator_distribution_factor
  • When the number of arbitrators is less than arbitrator_distribution_factor, m is set to 1
  • An arbitrator matches with a pool and can accept arbitration requests when: arbitrator number mod m = pool arbitration trigger timestamp mod m

Prize Distribution Algorithm

Predictium uses a simple and fair algorithm to distribute prizes:

  1. The total prize pool is the total pool funds minus service fees.
  2. The total prize is evenly distributed among the correct options.
  3. Traders receive returns proportional to their share of the correct option.

Here are two hypothetical examples.

  • First example: MMA match, Batman vs. Iron Man - who will win? Total pool fee is 2% (1% protocol fee, 1% poolmaker fee, no arbitration). 4,000 SOL on Batman, 6,000 SOL on Iron Man. You bet 20 SOL on Batman, who wins. The smart contract calculates your return as follows:

    Prize

    1. Total prize = (4000 + 6000) * (1 - 1% - 1%) = 9,800
    2. Prize for Batman = 9,800

    Your return

    1. Your return = 9800 * (20 / 4000) = 49

  • Second example: World Cup semi-finals with Brazil, Argentina, England, and Germany - who will reach the final? Total pool fee is 2% (0.5% protocol fee, 1.5% poolmaker fee). Bets: Brazil 10,000 USDC, Argentina 12,000 USDC, England 10,000 USDC, Germany 12,000 USDC. You bet 100 USDC on Brazil and 100 USDC on England. Arbitration confirms Brazil and Argentina reach the final. The smart contract calculates your return as follows:

    Prize

    1. Total prize = (10000 + 12000 + 10000 + 12000) * (1 - 0.5% - 1.5%) = 43,120
    2. Prize for Brazil = 43120 / 2 = 21560
    3. Prize for Argentina = 43120 / 2 = 21560

    Your Return

    1. On Brazil = 21560 * (100 / 10000) = 215.60
    2. On Argentina = 21560 * (0 / 12000) = 0
    3. On England = 0 * (100 / 10000) = 0

Predictium prediction pools can have multiple options, and traders can buy one or more options. In the above example, if you're confident about only one team reaching the final, you can buy just one option.

There's a special case in prize distribution: if a correct option has no buyers, its prize goes to the protocol treasury(50%) and poolmaker(50%).

According to the prize distribution algorithm, traders' potential returns and odds change dynamically, depending on market fluctuations after their purchase decisions. This is similar to how asset prices continue to change after traders buy them in traditional financial markets. Traders can view their potential returns and odds for different outcomes on Predictium's user interface.

Fee Structure

Predictium implements strict fee caps in its smart contract to ensure fairness and prevent excessive fees. The authority can only set protocol parameters within these hardcoded limits:

  • Protocol fee cap: 3%
  • Poolmaker fee cap: 15% (customized by each poolmaker in each pool)
  • Arbitration fee cap: 0.2% per arbitrator(set by authority in protocol parameters)

These caps are immutable and encoded directly in the smart contract, providing users with guaranteed maximum fee limits that cannot be exceeded even by the protocol authority.

Why Not Use Oracles

Predictium deliberately chooses not to use oracles for results determination. While oracles are excellent for providing specific data like cryptocurrency prices or weather information, Predictium aims to support prediction markets across a much broader range of topics and events. Many real-world outcomes cannot be reliably determined through oracles, such as:

  • Sports match results from smaller leagues or amateur competitions
  • Entertainment event outcomes (e.g., award shows, reality TV results)
  • Local event results
  • Subjective outcomes requiring human judgment
  • Novel or unique events without established data feeds

Instead, Predictium uses a combination of trusted poolmakers and a robust arbitration system to determine results, allowing for virtually unlimited types of prediction markets while maintaining results integrity through economic incentives and community oversight.

Governance

Predictium implements a two-tier governance system:

  1. DAO

    • Sets protocol parameters
    • Manages protocol-owned assets

  2. DAO Council

    • 9 members with significant $PRED holdings
    • Has general responsibilities and power of the DAO Council
    • Oversees arbitrators, confiscates arbitrator's staked $PRED and fees as punishment for unjust award

Note: Until DAO formation, the protocol is managed by the development team.

Tokenomics

Basic Mint Info

  • Name: Predictium Token
  • Symbol: PRED
  • Mint Address: 4V4M...WREV
  • Supply: 1,000,000,000
  • Decimals: 4
  • Mint Authority: Renounced
  • Freeze Authority: Renounced

Distribution Plan

  1. Project Team: 15%. 10% unlocked after 6 months, 90% linearly released over 24 months.
  2. Strategic Partners: 10%, 10% unlocked after vesting 6 months, 90% linearly released over 12 months.
  3. Presale: 15%. 10% unlocked after 6 months, 90% linearly released over 12 months.
  4. Airdrop: 26%. Initial airdrop (5%) to early participants. Three big waves of 7% each. 10% unlocked after 6 months, 90% linearly released over 12 months.
  5. IDO: 26%. 13% sold to investors, 13% for liquidity. 10% unlocked after 6 months, 90% linearly released over 12 months. 50% LP tokens will be burned after IDO, the remaining 50% will be transferred to the protocol treasury and managed by the DAO voting.
  6. CEX Listing: 8%, managed by the project team.

Funds Usage

Funds from presale and IDO will be used in the following ways:

  1. Protocol Code Audit
  2. Mobile App Development
  3. Service Operation of Website and Mobile App
  4. Multi-language Support and Localization
  5. Protocol Marketing

Protocol Revenue Distribution

As Predictium operates, the protocol will accumulate service fees in various tokens. The Predictium development team will add a new feature to TokenDist to fairly distribute the tokens held by the DAO to its members. This way, through decentralized governance, the Predictium DAO can decide to allocate its digital assets through various mechanisms similar to corporate profit distributions.

The DAO has full discretion over accumulated protocol fees and may choose to allocate them through various mechanisms including:

  1. Tokenholder Distributions - Direct allocation to $PRED holders proportionally
  2. $PRED Buybacks - Using funds to repurchase $PRED on DEXs to enhance token value
  3. Liquidity Provision - Adding more liquidity to $PRED trading pairs to improve market depth
  4. Ecosystem Development - Funding product upgrades, community incentives, and protocol improvements

Roadmap

  1. Phase 1: Demo and Presale

    • Deploy protocol on Devnet
    • Open source code repository
    • Mint governance token $PRED on mainnet
    • Start presale of 15% total supply
    • Execute initial airdrop (5% of total supply) to early participants
    • Begin third-party security audit when presale reaches 20% completion
    • Milestone: Successful completion of core features testing and security audit

  2. Phase 2: Mainnet Launch and First Airdrop

    • Deploy audited protocol on mainnet
    • First airdrop wave (7% of total supply)
    • Begin mobile app development
    • Launch global outreach program to onboard traditional betting operators and KOLs
    • Milestone: Total settled funds exceed $10M on mainnet

  3. Phase 3: Community Growth and IDO

    • Second airdrop wave (7% of total supply)
    • Execute IDO and burn 50% LP tokens from IDO
    • Form DAO council
    • Release mobile app
    • Milestone: Total settled funds exceed $100M on mainnet

  4. Phase 4: Full Decentralization

    • Final airdrop wave (7% of total supply)
    • CEX listing process initiation
    • Transfer protocol authority to DAO
    • Milestone: Successful authority transfer and first DAO vote

Each phase has specific completion criteria that must be met before proceeding to the next phase. The team will provide bi-weekly updates on progress through official channels.

Disclaimer: The roadmap contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially due to factors including but not limited to: market conditions, technological developments, regulatory changes, and ecosystem adoption. Milestone timelines are estimates subject to change without notice. For the latest updates, please follow our official announcements.

Multi-Chain Expansion

Predictium plans to expand to other high-performance blockchains in the future. Participants in the presale will directly receive 50% of their presale share in the new chain's tokens when Predictium expands to a new chain, without having to purchase them.

Airdrop

For detailed airdrop rules and participation requirements, please visit the Airdrop page.

Sales Channel

Predictium implements a sales channel system to incentivize community growth through referrals. Anyone can register as a sales channel to earn commissions and rewards.

Presale Phase

During the presale phase, sales channels can:

  • Register and receive a unique referral link
  • Promote $PRED presale through their referral link
  • Earn 10% commission in USDC on all presales through their channel
  • Receive $PRED airdrop allocation based on sales volume

Post-Launch Phase

After mainnet launch, sales channels can:

  • Promote Poolmaker registration through their referral link
  • Earn commissions from referred Poolmaker activities

When a Poolmaker registers through a sales channel's referral link, the channel's sequence number is recorded on-chain. For each successful settlement of prediction pools created by referred Poolmakers, the project team will allocate a portion of the protocol fees to the referring sales channel as an incentive. This commission structure will remain in effect until the protocol authority is transferred to the DAO, after which all protocol fees will be fully managed by DAO governance.

The sales channel system creates a win-win scenario where promoters are incentivized to grow the ecosystem while helping expand Predictium's reach to more users.

Roles In the Protocol

Authority

The Authority has the power to set protocol parameters and manage the funds held by the protocol. Initially authority is held by the protocol developer team. After the planned distribution of Predictium governance tokens is complete, the authority will be transferred to the Predictium DAO. Governance token holders will vote on protocol parameters and funds management, at which point Predictium will enter full decentralized governance status.

There are 4 instructions that the Authority can execute in the smart contract:

  1. Initialize

    Initialize protocol parameters.

  2. Set Rule

    Set protocol parameters.

  3. Transfer Funds

    Transfer tokens held by the protocol.

Council

There is 1 instruction that the Council can execute in the smart contract:

  1. Confiscate

    Confiscate arbitrator's staked token as punishment for unjust award.

Poolmaker

Anyone can register as a poolmaker on-chain by paying a certain amount of SOL. The registration fee is set by the protocol authority.

There are 5 instructions that poolmakers can execute in the smart contract:

  1. Register

    There are no restrictions on the name or description of a Poolmaker except for length. The protocol will assign a unique ID to each Poolmaker.

  2. Configure

    Administrator has privilege to modify administrator, operator, payout and off-chain profile. Operator can create or cancel prediction pools, announce results, and settle pools. Payout receives profits, can be multi-sig (e.g. Squads vault).

  3. Create Prediction Pool

    Poolmakers create a prediction pool that is open for trading.

  4. Announce Results

    Poolmakers announce the final results of a prediction pool or cancel the pool before the results announcement deadline.

    If the prediction pool is set to Disputable No, poolmaker and traders can settle profits immediately after results are announced. If set to Disputable Yes, profits can be settled after the results is confirmed. If the results are not confirmed, traders get refunded, and Poolmakers earn no profit.

  5. Settle Pool

    Poolmakers execute this instruction to collect their profit (service fee).

To enhance trust and transparency in the Predictium ecosystem, Poolmakers can verify their off-chain identities and community influence.

  1. Website Ownership

    • Poolmakers can verify ownership of their websites/domains
    • Verification is done through DNS records or file-based verification

  2. Social Network Verification

    • Discord Server: Verify ownership of a Discord server and create a channel and a permanent unlimited-member invite link
    • X(Twitter) Account: Verify social presence and influence
    • Telegram Channel/Group: Verify ownership of direct communication channels

While the Predictium protocol is permissionless and anyone can register as a Poolmaker, the Predictium UI may flag or delist Poolmakers found engaging in malicious behavior to protect users. This UI-level moderation does not affect the Poolmaker's ability to interact with the protocol directly through smart contracts.

Trader

There are 3 instructions that traders can execute in the smart contract:

  1. Buy Options

    Traders can buy options in prediction pools they are interested in. Funds are transferred directly to the prediction pool account, which is managed by the smart contract, during the trade and returned from the prediction pool account upon settlement.

  2. Settle Trade

    For valid prediction pool results, traders use this instruction to settle profits. For invalid results, traders use this instruction to get refunded.

  3. Request Arbitration

    If a prediction pool is set to be disputable and traders disagree with the announced results, they can request arbitration. If the token amount requesting arbitration exceed the protocol's threshold, arbitration proceedings will begin.

Arbitrator

Anyone can obtain arbitrator privileges by staking a certain amount of Predictium governance tokens. The required staking amount is determined by protocol authority.

Arbitrators can withdraw their staked governance tokens after a specified period since their last accepted arbitration request. Upon withdrawal, they lose their arbitrator privileges.

Arbitrators are supervised by the Predictium DAO Council. If traders or poolmakers believe an arbitrator's decision is unjust, they can contact the Predictium DAO Council. If the Council confirms the unjust decision, the arbitrator's staked governance tokens and accumulated arbitration fees will be confiscated as punishment partially or fully.

Arbitrators receive arbitration fees as economic incentives for accepting arbitration requests and rendering awards. The staked token amount, fee rate, are set by the authority within the protocol.

There are 3 instructions that traders can execute in the smart contract:

  1. Stake

    Stake governance tokens and obtain arbitrator privilege.

  2. Withdraw

    Withdraw governance tokens and lose arbitrator privilege.

  3. Accept Request

    Arbitrators accept an arbitration request.

  4. Render Award

    Arbitrators render award and receive an arbitration fee as an incentive.

Related Project: TokenDist

TokenDist is an independent open source project developed by Predictium team that offers a seamless solution for managing fungible token sales and vesting on the Solana blockchain. Predictium uses TokenDist to manage $PRED presale and airdrop. Predictium development team will add feature to TokenDist to distribute dividends to governance token holders. TokenDist is not only for Predictium, it can be used by any project on Solana blockchain.

Project Team

The project is developed by a team of highly skilled developers. For legal and privacy considerations, we have chosen not to disclose specific personal information. However, the protocol source code is open source on GitHub and will be audited by a third party before mainnet launch. For any inquiries or suggestions, please contact us through our official channels(Telegram, Discord, X, etc.).

Team Squads Vault:

Team member $PRED Locks: